The NHL Draft and NHL Free Agency are quickly approaching for the Los Angeles Kings, and with each passing day, it appears more likely they will be losing their top free agent. Vladislav Gavrikov has not signed a new contract and appears destined to test the market.
However, according to reports, Gavrikov doesn't have a long list and the New York Rangers look to be the most likely landing spot for the defenseman. If that is the case, then Ken Holland has a great chance to minimize the loss of Gavrikov and put together a true win-win trade for everyone involved.
Why would the New York Rangers do this trade?
If the New York Rangers are truly the favorite to sign Vladislav Gavrikov, then this would be a big advantage for them. They could begin negotiating with Gavrikov about 10 days before the rest of the league. When considering how shallow the group of free agent defensemen is, this would ensure they get the player they want.
In addition, this trade would allow the Rangers to offer an extra year on the contract and sign him to a max-term deal of eight years. This is also why Vladislav Gavrikov would welcome a trade like this as it would be the only way to get this long of a contract from any other team than the Kings.
Why would the Los Angeles Kings do this trade?
There is no question that the LA Kings win more in this trade because right now, they could lose Vladislav Gavrikov on July 1st with nothing to show for it in return. Then, if they were to pursue K'Andre Miller, who is a restricted free agent, and sign him to an offer sheet, they might have to offer the Rangers draft compensation if they don't match.
That draft compensation is dependent on the AAV of the offer sheet that he signs. In this scenario, my guess is the Kings would probably sign Miller in the AAV $5 million range and would then be required to send a 2026 first and 2026 third-round pick to the Rangers.
That is why a 2026 second-round pick makes sense because the Kings get a bit of a discount off the offer sheet compensation, but still send something along with the rights to Vladislav Gavrikov. It would give the Kings some flexibility to make moves in free agency or feel better about their defense if they also trade someone like Jordan Spence.