LA Kings: Three players who exceeded expected production metrics
Diving into the numbers, these three LA Kings players exceeded their expected production metrics. Two will be restricted free agents.
In today’s NHL, players are evaluated beyond just goals, assists, and their plus-minus ratings. Sources like Natural Stat Trick, Top Down Hockey, and Money Puck, among others, have utilizing predictive modeling to convey advanced metrics that truly define whether a player is meeting their expected production rates.
While CorsiFor percentages are helpful in determining puck possession and therefore scoring chance, expected-goals-for percentage (xGF%) has become a popular advanced analytic to measure an individual’s performance.
Individual expected goals is a lot more useful of a stat than individual corsi is. This is because it shows how many goals a single player was expected to score himself. Expected goals for percentage is once again excellent at showing how good a player is overall at the game. 50% is the threshold for over a full season that should be used to measure. When a player is above 50% they are helping their team generate higher quality chances than they give up when they are on the ice. When a team is above 50% they, simply, as a whole generated higher quality chances than their opponent. – LWOS/Elieff
As a team, the LA Kings accounted for a 45.3 xGF%, the second-worst mark in the league only ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks. Over the last three seasons, the Kings have committed to the rebuild, accumulating a combined 48.6 xGF%.
For reference, when Los Angeles won the Stanley Cup at the end of the 13-14 season, the Kings had a 55.9 xGF% during the regular season, the second-best in the league. As the organization’s prospects continue to gain more experience combined with some meaningful offseason acquisitions this summer, the team’s xGF% should begin trending in the right direction.
Here were three players who exceeded the predictive model’s numbers.
1. Blake Lizotte (+3.23 GF% vs xGF%)
The undrafted product out of St. Cloud State won a roster spot in training camp before the 19-20 season. Blake Lizotte tallied six goals and 17 assists in 65 games. With a -13.14 GF% to xGF%, Natural Stat Trick’s predictive model suggests that Lizotte should have put up more points in his rookie season.
In his sophomore year, the 23-year-old tallied two goals in his first four games. He landed on the NHL’s COVID protocol list for a couple of weeks that was detrimental to his season. Prior to the absence, Lizotte went four consecutive games without scoring a point.
Coming off the list, he took a bit to get his sea legs back, going nine games without tallying a point before finally recording an assist on March 8 against the Ducks.
Must Read. End of season review for defenseman Drew Doughty. light
He finished the season with just three goals and 10 points in 41 games and missed the team’s final nine games with an upper-body injury. Still, his net +3.23 GF% vs xGF% was the best among Kings’ skaters that played in at least 20 games.
Lizotte is a restricted free agent heading into the offseason, and Evolving Hockey sees him fetching a two-year at a $1.16M AAV cap hit.
It will be interesting to see if he returns next season, given how deep the organization is up the middle. An early roster projection for the four centers likely has Kopitar, Vilardi, Byfield, and Anderson-Dolan occupying the spots.
2. Andreas Athanasiou (+3.15 GF% vs xGF%)
The 26-year-old forward was a late addition to the team, signed as a free agent just days before training camp opened. Andreas Athanasiou quarantined before joining the team in camp, and he joined Lizotte on the NHL’s COVID protocol list. He missed the same amount of time but put up 23 points in 47 games.
Over an 82-game schedule, Athanasiou is a 40-point player.
The early reports suggest that the former Red Wing and Oiler will return next season, and perhaps he was the victim of playing with a poor quality of teammates, but he still managed to register a net +3.15 GF% vs xGF%.
Evolving Hockey projects his next contract to be a two-year deal worth $3.22M AAV. I can’t imagine what the Kings’ offensive numbers would have been if Athanasiou wasn’t brought in. He has such a unique skill set, one that features blazing speed and good finishing ability.
Athanasiou will be a welcome re-sign this offseason, but the team needs to surround him with better talent.
3. Matt Roy (+3.10 GF% vs xGF%)
He’s not flashy. He likely won’t ever put up big numbers, but Matt Roy has arguably been one of the most consistent players along the LA Kings blueline over the past two seasons. The former seventh-round selection had all odds against him, but Kings head coach Todd McLellan likes to refer to him as “Steady Eddie.”
The 26-year-old was set to become a restricted free agent this offseason, but the team locked Roy up to a three-year contract extension on March 21. The Detroit, Michigan native, had two goals and eight assists in 44 games this year.
He missed some time after being boarded by Kevin Fiala in the Kings-Wild series early on in the season. Like Lizotte and Athanasiou, Roy also landed on the NHL’s COVID protocol list.
It was such a choppy season for all three guys in terms of consistent games in a row without an injury or a positive test interrupting their seasons. It’s actually amazing these three led the way in GF% vs xGF%.
Roy has established his spot on the right side of the second defensive pairing. He and Tobias Bjornfot accounted for a 44.8 xGF% in 386.8 minutes, per MoneyPuck. With the Kings needing more scoring along the blue line, it’ll be interesting to monitor if the team sticks with that pairing next year.
Here were the GF% vs xGF% for all LA Kings’ skaters.
Data via Natural Stat Trick