Why LA Kings’ forward Alex Iafallo cannot afford regression year
Alex Iafallo could set himself up for a sizeable long-term extension, but a regression year could mean bad news for the LA Kings.
As an undrafted free agent from the University of Minnesota-Duluth, Alex Iafallo‘s emergence and rise to the first line on the LA Kings roster has been a feel-good story. Sure, on a better roster, he’d likely be on the second or third line, but right now, he’s proven that he can handle the duties that come along with being a top-six forward.
Alex Iafallo’s Scoring Breakdown
The Eden, New York native, finished his senior year on campus with 21 goals and 30 assists, catching the eye of many NHL teams. He signed with the LA Kings, making the Opening Night roster for the 2017-2018 roster. In 75 games, he scored 9 goals with 16 assists, playing most of his time alongside Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown.
The following year, Iafallo took a step forward in his development, tallying 15 goals with 18 assists while playing in all 82 games. He contributed more on special teams, scoring 2 goals with 4 assists on the man advantage. And this past season, Iafallo posted career-highs in a COVID-shortened season. He proved that he is a legitimate first-line winger, scoring 17 goals with 26 assists to go along with 9 points (6G, 3A) on the power play.
The 26-year-old’s 17 goals were part of a three-way tie for second only to Kopitar for the team lead for players who remained on the roster all year. (Tyler Toffoli had 18 goals but was traded to Vancouver at the deadline.)
What Stands Out
Throughout the first three years, Iafallo has done a tremendous job creating turnovers in the offensive zone. With the puck, he keeps his head up, looking for teammates who are providing support on odd-man rushes, either dishing it off or sniping one on net. Away from the puck, he’s been excellent at putting himself in favorable spots to receive tap-ins next to the net.
Iafallo has created a signature move to set up camp at the left dot and let players behind the net find him for a quick one-timer on net. He’s not an overly physical forward, but he’ll knock a player down to keep him away from the puck (see Winnipeg’s Josh Morrissey in November 2017).
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Why This Matters
Alex Iafallo is the only member on the Kings roster set to become an unrestricted free agent next offseason. To this point, the organization has been the benefactor of an affordable contract for a productive player. He’ll turn 27 in December. With a strong 2020-2021 season, Iafallo could be looking at a four-year deal exceeding $4M AAV, which will be a significant increase from the $2.4M AAV he’s making on his current contract.
Iafallo has done a great job of becoming an impact player for the LA Kings to this point. A season similar to the one in 2019-2020 will establish him as a piece for the next few years as members of the prospect pool graduate to the NHL.
Implications if Iafallo regresses in 2020-2021
Of course, if Iafallo shows any signs that the previous three seasons were a fluke, his long-term future in LA could be in doubt. Similar to Adrian Kempe, who has proved to be inconsistent at times, the organization could think twice about the term and dollars committed to Iafallo.
Granted, the latter doesn’t have the same expectations as a first-round pick (Kempe), but we’ve seen enough to know what Iafallo should bring to the table.
Regression from Iafallo would also leave it open to interpretation to fill his spot on the top line. On paper, guys like Arthur Kaliyev, Samuel Fagemo, or Akil Thomas (if he makes the transition to wing) appear to be on a first-line trajectory.
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Conclusion
While the upcoming NHL season will be an evaluation year for the LA Kings prospects, it will also be an evaluation year for Iafallo if he should continue playing on the team’s top line. Let’s say he is dropped to the second or third lines due to a lack of performance. His next contract with the organization is going to reflect it. The Kings might offer him a two-year deal worth slightly more than what he’s making right now.