The LA Kings should go all in on Dougie Hamilton
Dougie Hamilton is the most coveted defenseman potentially hitting free agency this offseason. The LA Kings should make signing him their number one priority.
The LA Kings need to improve their team scoring this offseason – everyone knows that. They started that process last week by trading for winger Viktor Arvidsson from the Nashville Predators for two draft picks. It’s a start, and with over $12 million in salary-cap space, after they re-sign their own RFA’s, they need to continue adding players that can put the puck in the net.
The LA Kings are looking to add two top-six forwards and a “young, dynamic, left-shot defenseman” to the team (well, make that one top-six forward after the Arvidsson trade”). If they choose to add the top-six forward through free agency, Brandon Saad and Mike Hoffman will be the best available options, as Gabriel Landeskog, Alex Ovechkin, and Taylor Hall will probably be going back to their current teams.
Related Story. What the Kings should do post Viktor Arvidsson trade. light
They could also fill that need via trade, as Conor Garland, Sam Reinhart, and Vladimir Tarasenko have all popped up in the trade rumor mill as potential targets for the Kings.
The trade route could potentially get very expensive for LA, especially if they want someone like Reinhart. Even with all the turmoil in Buffalo, the twenty-five-year-old right-wing/center has been an outstanding performer for the Sabres.
In six full NHL seasons, he has scored at least 20 goals in five of them, and he was particularly great last season. Despite the disaster that was the Sabres season, in 54 games played, Reinhart had 25 goals to go with 15 assists, and this was playing without superstar center and linemate Jack Eichel for half of the season.
For the LA Kings to bring in a talent like Reinhart via trade will be very costly. He’s a young and proven talent in the NHL, even on a bad team. Rob Blake‘s offer will have to start with Alex Turcotte and then add prospects or draft picks to the package (let me say it loud and clear so the peeps in the back will hear, I am NOT suggesting the Kings should do this, I’m simply illustrating how expensive this could get).
On top of it all, Reinhart is now also a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. Simply put, he will want to get paid. Is a young proven talent like Reinhart worth the money? I would say he is, but to get him signed to a contract with enough years to keep him around long-term, the Kings will be looking at paying in the $8 million per season range for Mr. Reinhart’s services.
Sign him to a cheaper bridge contract, and the team risks losing him to unrestricted free agency in a few years when the salary cap will go up. Conor Garland’s new contract will not have nearly that high of a cap hit, and while Tarasenko has a $7.5 million cap hit, his contract has only this season and next left on it. Neither Garland nor Tarasenko will require the return of prospects and/or draft capital to acquire that Sam Reinhart will.
Don’t like the idea of giving up high-end prospects and/or draft picks in trades? Forget about trading for a top young, dynamic defenseman then. These types of defensemen are rare and even harder to find than high-scoring young forwards. The price for acquiring a Jakob Chychrun or Zach Werenski would be astronomical, with the package most likely being on par with the one it would take to get Sam Reinhart. Much like with the forwards, there could potentially be a young, dynamic defenseman that would be available for a lower price tag, but the idea here is to think big, right?
That leaves the LA Kings with one more option to put some pop back in the offense – an unrestricted free agent offensive-minded defenseman. There are two of those that should be available this offseason, and they are Tyson Barrie and Dougie Hamilton. While Barrie is coming off of a career season with Edmonton Oilers, the better long-term choice is Hamilton.
On the surface, Dougie Hamilton and the LA Kings do not seem to be a good match. After all, the Kings are looking for a left defenseman, and Hamilton has played on the right side for his entire career. The right side of the Kings’ defense appears to be set with Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Sean Walker.
They also have prospects like Sean Durzi, Austin Strand, Helge Grans, Jordan Spence, and Brock Faber, who will push for spots on that right side sooner or later. Why would the Kings need to spend a lot of money to bring in a high-profile right defenseman?
The Doughty Factor
Drew Doughty has been the heart, soul, and anchor of the LA Kings defense for over a decade. The 2016 Norris Trophy winner has pretty much done it all in his career, and the Kings rewarded him for that with an eight-year, $88 million contract that will take him all the way through the end of the 2026-27 season.
Doughty will turn thirty-two in December, and he is showing no signs of slowing down – for now. His average time on ice last season was a remarkable 26:23. He will be thirty-seven years old when that $88 million contract expires, so if the Kings want Doughty to remain effective by the end of it, they need to figure out a way to start managing his minutes now. This is where Dougie Hamilton comes in.
At twenty-eight years old, Hamilton is entering the prime of his career. Last season, his ATOI (average time on ice) was 22:43, so he can eat the minutes that will eventually become necessary to get Doughty some rest. Last season, the LA Kings’ other right defensemen, Matt Roy and Sean Walker, had an ATOI of 19:15 and 18:10, respectively.
Both could probably play more minutes if needed, but we don’t know if they would be as effective with a greater workload, and they also don’t bring another factor that Dougie Hamilton brings, which is…
Show me the offense.
Sean Walker is more offensive-minded than Matt Roy, but he does not have Dougie Hamilton’s offensive game. Successful offenses in the NHL get scoring from both their forwards and their defenseman. Outside of Drew Doughty, the LA Kings do not have a legitimate scoring threat from their blueline. Dougie Hamilton would change all of that.
Over his past seven seasons, Hamilton is averaging over 42 points per year, and in that span, has never scored less than ten goals in any of those seasons. Outside of Doughty, no other Kings defenseman even comes close to that. Remember how anemic the Kings’ second powerplay unit was last year? Having Dougie Hamilton as the quarterback of that unit would go a long way toward fixing it.
The LA Kings have the aforementioned right-shot defense prospects like Brock Faber, Jordan Spence, and Helge Grans in the pipeline, but they will need three to four more years before arriving in LA. Dougie Hamilton will want a seven-year contract, and so there is a concern giving him that long of a deal will eventually block those prospects from coming up.
A lot can change in three years, and the Kings should not pass on a chance to improve the team now and long term to avoid a problem that might occur in three years (remember, there is no guarantee any of the prospects succeed at the NHL level, regardless of how highly touted they are).
To make room for Dougie Hamilton, Sean Walker would most likely end up being moved. It’s a shame because I like Sean Walker as a player, but he is a proven NHL defenseman on a great contract that would make him a very enticing trade target for other teams. Could he be used to help address other areas of need on the Kings?
Bringing in Dougie Hamilton would eat up a lot of the LA Kings’ available salary-cap space this offseason. The good news is that over the next three seasons, Dustin Brown’s, Jonathan Quick’s, and Anze Kopitar’s contracts all come off the books along with Jeff Carter’s retained salary and Dion Phaneuf’s buyout (although Kopitar and perhaps Brown will be brought back on cheaper contracts).
Couple this with the fact that the salary cap will be going up in a couple of years, and the prospects will still be on their ELC’s, so the Kings will still have a lot of financial flexibility. Because of this, I say the LA Kings would be able to offer Dougie Hamilton a seven-year, 63 million dollar contract and still have room to make moves next season and beyond.