Los Angeles Kings: Advanced Stat Puts Kopitar In Lead For Selke

Apr 2, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar (11) goes by the bench after a goal in the third period of the game against the Phoenix Coyotes at Staples Center. Kings won 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

In my last series of articles I analyzed the defensive Fenwick, Corsi, and Real-Time stats of Selke contenders, with Kopitar falling just short of guys like Patrice Bergeron each time.

That isn’t the case when it comes to GF% (goals for / goals for + goals against). In fact, Kopitar outshines fellow Selke contenders Jonathan Toews and Patrice Bergeron by a large margin in this defensive metric.

Stats are based on 5 v 5 play, and are current as of April 6th

Player Name
GF%
TMGF%
OppGF%
GF% - TMGF% + OppGF%
Anze Kopitar0.6760.4870.5090.698
Patrice Bergeron0.6670.5400.4970.624
Jonathan Toews0.5890.5380.5120.563

Not only does Kopitar have the highest GF% of the three, but when teammate quality and quality of competition are accounted for his superior defensive prowess becomes even more apparent. Simply put, when Anze Kopitar is on the ice he scores, and you don’t.

To take things a step further I also looked at GF HARD stats, an advanced defensive metric that can be explained here.

 

Player Name
GF HARD
GF HARD QOT
GF HARD QOC
GF HARD - QOT + QOC
Anze Kopitar53.940.0- 4.739.170
Patrice Bergeron44.140.2- 9.09- 5.190
Jonathan Toews- 9.302.70- 4.74- 16.74

Again, Kopitar dominates in this regard.

These Corsi, Fenwick, and GF numbers basically solidify that the Selke race is down to two: Kopitar and Bergeron. This isn’t exactly news, but it does help us to understand which player might win for what reasons. Puck possession favors Bergeron, and GF numbers favor Kopitar.

The fact that Kopitar outshines in GF, which could be due to a number of reasons (likely his superior defensive positioning),  and barely trails Bergeron in puck possession, should put him in the front of the race for the Selke at this point.

Anze Kopitar would be the first LA King to ever win a Selke Trophy.

Colin Pineau
@WhiskeyColin

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Tags: Anze Kopitar Jonathan Toews Los Angeles Kings Patrice Bergeron Selke Trophy

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