Los Angeles Kings Kopitar Not Selke Front Runner According To Fenwick

Apr 3, 2014; San Jose, CA, USA; Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar (11) fights for the puck with San Jose Sharks center Logan Couture (39) during the second period at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

In my last article, which challenged Kopitar’s Selke level defensive prowess, I received a lot of heat for using real-time stats, and not advanced stats like Fenwick and Corsi. Though I feel these stats have some flaws, I went ahead and a did a break down of them anyway to see where Kopitar would compare based on these metrics. The results again are not in his favor.

Be Aware: All stats are current as of April 2nd and are based on 5v5 play only. As well, only players with 750+ minutes these season were considered.

2014 Selke Front Runners Puck Possession

Player Name
FF%
TMFF%
OppFF%
FF% - TMFF%
FF% - TMFF% + OppFF%
Patrice Bergeron0.606 0.504

0.4990.1020.601
Mikko Koivu0.5650.4750.5030.0900.593
Zach Parise0.5600.4810.5050.0790.584
Jussi Jokinen0.5470.4670.5000.0800.580
Jason Pominville0.5360.4590.5030.0770.580
Joe Thornton0.5830.5060.5020.0770.579
Corey Perry0.5400.4660.5050.0740.579
Daniel Sedin0.5600.4920.5050.0680.573
Jaromir Jagr 0.5760.5050.5010.0710.572
Mikael Backlund0.5310.4660.5060.0650.571
Anze Kopitar0.5970.5440.5030.0530.556
Brad Marchand0.5900.5320.4980.0580.556
Mike Cammalleri0.5220.4760.5010.0460.547
Henrik Sedin0.5420.5120.5090.0300.539
Dustin Penner0.5240.5030.5110.0210.532
Benoit Pouliot0.5420.5180.4990.0240.523
Derick Brassard0.5370.5180.5000.0190.519
Joe Colborne0.4780.4710.5040.0070.511
Mats Zuccarello0.5320.5240.4990.0080.507
Kyle Brodziak0.4370.4790.501- 0.0420.459
FF% = Average of shots + shots missed and shots against + shots against missed while on ice (often used to describe a players puck possession)

TMFF% = The average FF% of the players teammates he plays with. (Basically quality of teammates)

OppFF% = The average FF% of the opponents the player typically faces (Basically quality of competition)

So by subtracting TMFF% (QOT) and adding OppFF% (QOC) we get a more accurate representation of the players overall puck possession abilities.

You can see that based on FF% alone, Kopitar is second only to Bergeron. But when the other metrics are accounted for his puck possession rank falls to #12 in the league. Meanwhile, Bergeron is still on top.

But I didn’t stop there. I decided to the same thing for Fenwick HARD, which is Fenwick’s complex player defensive rankings. An explanation of how the stat is calculated can be found here.

I took Fenwick HARD and subtracted HARD quality of teammates and added Hard quality of competition, for a more accurate representation of the players HARD defensive abilities.

Here are the results:

2014 Selke Front Runner Fenwick Defense

Player Names
Fenwick HARD
Fenwick HARD QOT
Fenwick HARD QOC
HARD - HARD QOT
HARD - HARD QOT + HARD QOC
Kyle Brodziak6.60- 10.5- 2.7717.114.33
Joe Colborne 4.80- 6.50- 0.4311.310.87
Mikko Koivu 23.611.1- 2.1912.510.31
Daniel Sedin15.35.00- 0.3410.39.96
Dustin Penner7.10- 2.103.585.008.58
Mikael Backlund13.34.20- 0.919.108.19
Corey Perry6.60- 1.20- 0.497.807.31
Henrik Sedin11.75.801.095.906.99
Mats Zuccarello12.34.60- 0.737.706.97
Benoit Pouliot14.05.70- 1.708.306.60
Derick Brassard12.55.70- 1.286.805.52
Mike Cammalleri12.84.10- 3.288.705.42
Patrice Bergeron27.017.0- 5.3910.04.61
Zach Parise19.213.5- 1.345.704.36
Jason Pominville18.012.0- 1.866.004.14
Jussi Jokinen9.102.40- 2.806.703.90
Jaromir Jagr39.632.8- 4.276.802.53
Anze Kopitar24.219.8- 2.464.401.94
Brad Marchand24.017.1- 5.806.901.10
Joe Thornton14.411.7- 2.122.700.58
Fenwick HARD is the culmination of many statistics and evaluates a players defensive ability. Like with FF% I subtracted HARD QOT and added Hard QOC to get a move accurate representation of a players real defensive ability. The results are intriguing.

 

In this table we see guys like Kyle Brodziak at the front. This is mostly due to the poor quality of the teammates he plays with, which boosts his numbers. Never the less, he’s one of those lesser known players who’s superior defensive abilities typically fly under the radar. Not surprised to find him so highly ranked here.

Bergeron falls to #14 in this table and Kopitar falls to #19.

But let’s combine the two stats to get a more accurate reading of a players overall defensive abilities. How I did this will be explained in the table description.

2014 Selke Front Runner Possession and Defense Average

Player Names
(FF% - (TMFF% + OppFF%) x 100
Hard - HARD QOT + Hard QOC
(((FF% - TMFF% + OppFF%) x 100) + (Hard - Hard QOT + Hard QOC)) /2
Mikko Koivu59.3010.3134.805
Daniel Sedin57.309.96033.630
Mikael Backlund57.108.19032.645
Corey Perry57.907.31032.605
Patrice Bergeron60.104.61032.355
Zach Parise58.404.36031.380
Joe Colborne51.1010.8730.985
Jussi Jokinen58.003.90030.950
Dustin Penner53.208.58030.890
Henrik Sedin53.906.99030.445
Kyle Brodziak45.9014.3330.115
Mike Cammalleri54.705.42030.060
Jaromir Jagr57.202.53029.865
Jason Pominville58.004.14029.570
Benoit Pouliot52.306.60029.450
Joe Thornton57.900.58029.240
Mats Zuccarello50.706.97028.835
Anze Kopitar55.601.94028.770
Derick Brassard51.905.52028.710
Brad Marchand55.601.10028.350
By averaging the players possession number we got with the players defensive numbers we got, we receive a value perhaps more representative of a players defensive abilities this season. The tricky part is averaging a percentage with a number. To get compensate for this I multiplied all FF%-TMFF%+OppFF% by 100 and then averaged that number with the Fenwick Hard number we computed. The results are interesting.

 

Mikko Koivu tops this list, making him, by these metrics, Selke front-runner.

The interesting results are where Mikael Backlund (#4) and Joe Colborne (#8) fall on this list. Perhaps if they were more established players, on better teams, they would get more Selke attention for their superb defensive play.

Patrice Bergeron falls to #6 on this list, while Kopitar plummets to #19.

Other suggested Selke candidates like Backes, Pavelski, Toews, Plekanec, and Kesler, we’re not included in any of the lists because they did not finish high on the final average of possession and HARD. Players like Crosby, who would have finished high on the puck possession list, were also not included for the same reason. Although Bergeron was indeed the number one in adjusted puck possession and Brodziak indeed the number one in adjusted Fenwick HARD, regardless of players excluded.

If we consider only rumored Selke candidates, Bergeron is clearly the front runner over Kopitar for the Selke when looking at these metrics.

These stats and metrics aren’t perfect, and don’t account for all the intangibles in hockey’s defensive game. However they are a good place to start. Any thoughts, suggestions, or critiques, you may have on my statistical analysis would be very welcome, and perhaps we can develop an even more improved formula.

Colin Pineau@WhiskeyColin

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Tags: Anze Kopitar Los Angeles Kings Mikko Koivu Patrice Bergeron Selke Trophy

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