Los Angeles Kings Kopitar: Corsi Numbers Do Not Favor The Selke Contender

Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

In my last article I analyzed some defensive Fenwick statistics and found that the numbers favored Patrice Bergeron, over Kopitar, for the Selke. I decided to do the same for Corsi numbers, except this time I narrowed the players to just the top three rumored Selke contenders: Kopitar, Bergeron, and Toews.

Again, the Corsi puck possession numbers favor Bergeron.

Stats are current as of April 6, and are for 5 on 5 play

Player Name
CF%
TMCF%
OppCF%
CF% - TMCF% + OppCF%
Patrice Bergeron0.6120.5090.4990.602
Anze Kopitar0.6090.5500.5020.561
Jonathan Toews0.5910.5360.5030.558
  • Corsi = Shot Attempts = Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shot
  • CF% = Corsi For / (Corsi For + Corsi Against)
  • TMCF% = The average CF% of the teammates the skater plays with
  • OppFF% = The average CF% of the opponents the player typically faces

Although CF% is good for measuring a players puck possession ability, subtracting quality of teammates and adding quality of competition gives us a more accurate representation of that ability.

I also looked at Corsi HARD stats like I did with Fenwick. HARD is an analysis of a players defensive abilities. I used the same method as above. Subtract quality of teammates and add quality of competition. Bergeron is again favored.

Player Name
Corsi HARD
Corsi HARD QOT
Corsi HARD QOC
HARD - QOT + QOC
Patrice Bergeron30.720.0- 4.935.770
Anze Kopitar30.024.4- 2.772.830
Jonathan Toews25.022.1- 3.13- 0.230

For an explanation of how the defensive stat HARD is calculated, look here.

Corsi and Fenwick numbers both favor Patrice Bergeron over Kopitar. Do I have an anti-Kopitar agenda? No, I’m merely observing the data as objectively and unbiased as I possibly can, and drawing conclusions. If there’s anything good to take away from these numbers as a Kings fan, it’s that Kopitar is right on Bergeron’s heels when it comes to these stats. By these metrics he would be Selke runner-up right now.

Fenwick and Corsi also aren’t everything. I’ll be providing more advanced stat analysis going forward that may or may not show that Kopitar is superior defensively to Bergeron this season.

Tags: Anze Kopitar Jonathan Toews Los Angeles Kings Patrice Bergeron Selke Trophy

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